Shaq had a very good game last night against the Clippers. While checking the post-game report from Ben’s Suns Blog I started thinking whether the Suns have finally become Shaq’s team or else.

Looking at the stats of Suns players split by their performances in wins and losses (from ESPN.com) it’s apparent that the Suns win games when: Stoudemire doesn’t shot more than 15 times, Shaq has a very good game and Nash just plays.

In the Suns’ 12 losses this year Amaré Stoudemire has averaged (in about 38 minutes of play) 22.6 points, 2.4 assists and 8.6 rebounds per game. In those games Amaré took an average of 15.8 shots. In wins, Stoudemire’s numbers have been worse. In the 19 Suns victories, STAT has averaged 21.3 points, 2.1 assists and 8.5 rebounds while taking 12.9 shots a game.

Shaq has just been the opposite case. The Big Catctus has been great in wins (19.4 ppg, 9.6 rebounds and .62 percent shooting) and much worse in losses (13 ppg, 7.6 rebounds and .51 percent shooting). All of the above while playing the same minutes in wins and losses (29.9 vs 29.8).

How about Nash? Well, Steve has been basically the same in wins (14.8 ppg, 8.5 assists, 3.8 turnovers) and losses (14.3 ppg, 8.2 assists, 3.2 turnovers) with the only relevant different being his 3-point shooting percentage (.481 vs .357) but on a very limited number of attempts.

The others, well let’s just say Barnes has better stats in losses, Barbosa scores a couple more points in wins and Grant Hill’s stats are somewhat similar to Shaq’s. Hill is averaging 10.7 points and 4.7 rebounds in wins against 8.6 and 3.4 in losses.  

Interestingly, in the +/- differential (from NBA.com) which is a very relevant index since basketball games are won by the team that scores the most points…the Suns best player are Nash (+129) and Shaq (+105) while the best 2-player combination is Stoudemire and Nash (+ 158 over 27 games); 3-player combo it’s Nash, STAT and Hill at +110).

Does it mean that Stoudemire is at his best playing with Nash? Does it mean Stoudemire is less effective playing with Shaq? It could be. The Suns top three 2-player combinations are Nash+Stoudemire, Hill+Nash and Shaq+Nash, while Shaq+Staoudemire comes only as the 8th best 2-player combination. The same results emerges from the analysis using 82games.com data.

The scary part is that Nash is great at home (+ 114) and so-so (+15) on the road. Speaking of which, Leandro Barbosa is -66 at home and +22 on the road. The rest of the Suns roster is much more balanced in that area.

So, is it Shaq’s team? Maybe. For sure it’s Nash’s team and definitely not Shaq&Stoumemire’s.

Yours truly, Steve Fan

 

January 3rd, 2009 5:40 AM