All signs point to a Mercury win tonight.

And that’s exactly why tonight’s game scares me…

• The Mercury are 2-0, the Monarchs are 0-2.
• The Monarchs have several players not playing at 100%.
• The Mercury have lost the last 14 of 17 games in Sacramento at Arco Arena.
• The Monarchs play 6 of the next 7 on the road and want to secure a win at home.
• The Mercury play the next 4 at home and want to get their first win on the road.

Yikes.

Unlike the Liberty, the Monarchs bigs aren’t a threat from the outside.   Though Sacramento is certainly having trouble putting the ball through the basket averaging a league worst 65.5 points per game, they do crash the boards extremely hard both on the defensive end and the offensive end, along with always playing their hearts out until the buzzer sounds.  With only two players averaging in double figures for Sacramento, combined with the Mercury’s improved defense, it should be a difficult night offensively for the Monarchs.

Offensively for the Mercury, however, could be a different story.  Though Phoenix still hasn’t clicked on all cylinders yet, they average over 90 points a game, almost 25 more points per contest than the Monarchs.

While it may not seem so, tonight is a big game for this Mercury team.

These are the types of games that a championship caliber team not only needs to win, but win convincingly.  With Sacramento being dead last in the league in almost all offensive categories, we’ll really see how far along the Mercury’s defense has come thus far.

Offensively, this is a perfect type of game to get the Mercury clicking to their full potential.  Sure, they average about 90 a game but in each of the first two contests, they’ve had quarters where they haven’t shot well at all.  Theoretically, the Mercury could/should be averaging more than the Lynx (95.0) and probably closer to 100 points per game.

Winning tonight would be a perfect scenario to gain some confidence and get their first win on the road before heading back home for the next 4 games.  Coming up, Phoenix hosts some of the league’s best in Minnesota, L.A., and Seattle.

Thus, tonight’s contest is the sheer definition of a ‘trap game’.

Overlooking the Monarchs would be a costly mistake.

June 12th, 2009 11:15 AM