11 months ago:
Sean Miller wipes away tears at a news conference where he announced he is leaving Xavier to become men's basketball coach at Arizona, Monday, April 6, 2009, in Cincinnati. Miller led Xavier to the Elite Eight last year and received a contract extension through the 2017-18 season. Xavier reached the round of 16 again this season. (AP Photo/Tony Tribble)
As expected, the Cats were not chosen for the NCAA Tournament on Sunday. Not only did the Cats not make the NCAA Tourney, they were snubbed by the NIT as well. The Cats declined an invitation to play in the College Basketball Invitational. Coach Miller had this to say about that decision:
That's really not what our program is about right now. The goal here is to make the NCAA Tournament and be in a position for a seed that can advance and can threaten for the Final Four. I'm going to sound the exact way I did when I got here. The building process and doing things the right way is at the forefront. Recruiting Arizona players ...making sure that everybody who returns, returns better and making sure that everyone who is on our roster is about winning. It's about team. It's about togetherness and having a bigger picture than six months. In another six months, a culture will be developed, a way of doing things will be developed. Not only by miles, but sometimes in inches we'll continue to improve and emerge on the national level and within our conference. It's going to take a lot of hard work and patience. Part of the story is written and there is a lot of hard work to go.
That's it for this year's Cats basketball. I'm sure there is disappointment all around at the McKale center, especially for Nic Wise.
This year's team was mediocre at best and only came together to play as a team on a few occasions. Derrick Williams is a stud and will only get better. I wish Nic the best in the future and will be keeping an eye him on NBA draft day.
Arizona's streak of 25 consecutive NCAA berths has come to an end. I think most astute observers coming into the season would have conceded the point. An NCAA tournament run from a group this young, with really only one bona fide NBA talent on the roster, would have been almost miraculous.
Still, I think this group should rate some consideration for one of the post-season tournaments, preferably the NIT.
More than anything this group just needs to continue to get minutes together, and the non-NCAA tournaments are good for young teams in that regard. Despite Arizona's youth this group has done some positive things, and a trip to the post-season would allow them to continue building on them heading into the off-season.
One thing this team does reasonably well is shoot--when it gets shots. Arizona'sTrue Shooting Percentage* (TS%) is 55%. *True shooting is an adjusted field goal percentage that accounts for the impact of 3pt shooting and getting to the free throw line. That's pretty decent, and the potential is there for growth. Arizona shoots better than NCAA tournament teams West Virginia and Tennessee as well as probable at-large teams Washington and Texas. All are generally considered good offensive teams. Derrick Williams (64%) is obviously a big part of that, but Arizona has few high volume/low efficiency chuckers, and that's typically a sign that guys are working hard to get good shots. That's a credit to the coaching staff and to those players. Having said that, going forward I have pretty major concerns about Kevin Parrom (42%) and Mo Mo Jones (49%). Shooting that poorly is a troubling sign from two players so highly regarded coming out of high school.
Arizona's Points Per Play (0.91) was the real problem with the offense from a team wide perspective. (BYU leads the country at 1.02). If you click the link and scroll down you'll see some tournament teams at .91 points per play, but very few below that mark. So Arizona was at the bottom end of decent. Points per play tells us how well a team is converting its possessions into points. We know this team converts its shots at a good percentage, but it just doesn't get enough shots. "And another turnover by the Wildcats," may have been the most commonly repeated phrase during any Arizona broadcast. Arizona's assist-to-turnover is .89, which is dreadful. For a team that has to grind out wins, it's a wonder that they managed to finish above .500 throwing away so many possessions. We can expect the turnovers to improve just in the course of some natural maturation and by playing together more.
The biggest improvement needs to come on defense. I can't put my hands on opponent shooting percentages, but foul-based metrics show a mediocre defensive team. Arizona committed 19.2 fouls per game--not very good. It also didn't make up for fouling with turnover-producing defensive plays. Arizona's blocks+steals/foul was only .44. So, many of Arizona's fouls were of the clutching and grabbing type. Although I often saw lots of effort on defense it often only resulted in fouls.
Let's hope Arizona gets an invite to a post-season tournament so we can send Nic off the right way and the kids can get some additional development.
11 days ago:
Arizona's Kyle Fogg (21) goes to the basket as Southern California's Marcus Johnson (0) defends during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game at McKale Center in Tucson, Ariz., Saturday, March 6, 2010. (AP Photo/John Miller)
Arizona battled back in the 2nd half to tie the Trojans of Southern California to take it into overtime but even one overtime wasn't enough. The Cats won in dramatic fashion on the second overtime by beating USC 86-84. It was the second time in two games that the Cats have had to claw their way back after being down at home in the first half. This one was a little more dramatic than the UCLA game.
Arizona fell behind 38-33 in the first half and had a hard time controlling Dwight Lewis all day. Kyle Fogg attempted a three point shot with two tenths of a second left in regulation. Fogg got to the line and hit all three free throws to take the game into overtime. The dramatics didn't end there. Each team battled back and forth and one overtime wasn't enough to decide the victor.
The Cats looked a little more in control in the second overtime and were leading by two points when USC's Marcus Simmons hit a bucket to tie the game with 16.3 seconds left. Nic Wise, who scored 15 points on the night, and was playing his last home game at McKale Center, hit the game winning layup with 1.5 seconds left in the double overtime. He drove through traffic and timed his shot perfectly.
What a tremendous way to close out the season. There have been a lot of ups and downs but the Cats have dug deep and battled UCLA and USC the entire time and never thought they were out of either. Kyle Fogg, who had 18 points on the day against USC and 26 points against UCLA, looked like the guy Arizona thought they were going to have all season. He had an incredible weekend in Tucson.
The Cats will travel to Los Angeles next week to begin the Pac-10 tournament. The tournament begins for Arizona on Thursday, March 11 and Arizona is matched up against UCLA at 12:00 pacific time. This is the Cats chance to keep history alive and attempt to get the automatic bid into the NCAA tournament with a Pac-10 Tournament championship.
12 days ago:
Arizona's Lamont Jones (12) reacts during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against UCLA at McKale Center in Tucson, Ariz., Thursday, March 4, 2010. Arizona won 78-73. (AP Photo/John Miller)
I don't know what it is about UCLA and Kyle Fogg but Sean Miller should convince that kid that every opponent is secretly representing the Los Angeles campus for the University of California every time the ball gets rolled out onto the court. It was a first half that was almost reminiscent of the first few games of the OOC schedule. Turnovers, missed assignments, foul trouble inside, shooting that resembled a game in an auto shop, clunkers abounded. UCLA played steady ball but lacked that certain something to put the Cats away, but they certainly looked to be in charge at halftime, up by 10.
In the second half, it started like the first, the Cats managed to get down by another 7 to make the lead 17. Derrick Williams picked up his 4th foul. Tyler Hunnicutt looked like the light bulb had gone off and Michael Roll was doing a bit of everything, clearing the defensive boards, making the extra pass, as well as, hitting the open look; something the Cats had been unable to do in the first half.
Something happened, Miller stumbled upon a combination that sparked a lil more effort, a little bit of confidence and he managed to fan that flame until it became a fire, Nic Wise made a few free throws, MoMo Jones penetrated, dished, hit mid range and deep jumpers. Kyle Fogg got nasty and started to look like he was taking the lackluster play personally. The cats backcourt took over, they sliced into the lane, they pulled up, they made some open shots and then they returned the defensive favor by amping up the pressure in UCLA. The Bruins out shot the Cats in the first half 51 to 38%. The game ended with the shooting percentages in the Cats favor in the by the end of the 2nd half compiling a 51 to 45 percentage for the game. Granted the Bruins were lacking a presence in the center, but DWill had been effectively stymied with foul trouble and only 12 points (and only shooting 50% from the FT line). It was all about the guard play and it wasn't even Nic Wise, it was MoMo and Kyle who ledge the charge, got their teammates fired up and the defensive intensity was the fisrt to arrive that was closely followed by offensive opportunity. Kyle ended up with a new scoring high of 26 and he was closely followed by MoMo's crucial 16.
It was an unlikely comeback, despite how welcome the result, yet while these Cats may not be the most consistent group, they are showing a certain mettle and resiliency that is refreshing to watch.
17 days ago:
Arizona forward Derrick Williams, left, smiles with guard Lamont Jones late in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in Stanford, Calif., Saturday, Feb. 27, 2010. Arizona defeated Stanford 71-69. Williams was the game's high scorer with 24 points. (AP Photo/Tony Avelar)
The Arizona Wildcats split the weekend by losing to Cal 95-71 and then beating Stanford 71-69. Derrick Williams continues to dominate as he scored 17 points against Cal and then 24 points against Stanford. Derrick Williams should be considered for the Pac-10 player of the year definitely.
Brendon Lavender scored 14 points against Cal and Lamont Jones scored 16 points (7-15) against Stanford. Lamont Jones scored the game winner as time expired to beat Stanford.
The Cats just can't seem to put it all together. With the exception of Derrick, the rest of the group is streaky. For instance, Lavender scored 14 against Cal and only had 1 point against Stanford in 25 minutes of play. He missed all 4 shots as well. Lamont had 10 points in the loss against Cal, so he is coming on strong at the end of the year. Nic has been hit or miss, mostly miss as of late and the rest of the guys are non-existent except for a breakout game by Horne every now and then.
Miller has a lot of work to do in the off-season, including some team building efforts to make sure that all of the guys realize they are only as strong as the weakest link. (You know you like that high school football quote.) In this instance though, it's true. If there is no one to support Derrick Williams, we can't compete against anybody.
The Cats end the season against UCLA on Thursday and USC on Saturday. After that, the Pac-10 tournament is the only shot to keep the streak alive!!!!
3 months ago:
California's Jerome Randle reacts after making a shot against Iowa State in the first half of an NCAA college basketball game, Saturday, Dec. 5, 2009, in Berkeley, Calif. (AP Photo/Dino Vournas)
The fellas over at California Golden Blogs gave us some more insight into the Pac-10's leading basketball program. It's going to be a tough one for the Cats on Thursday night in enemy territory.
1. Since losing to the Cats on January 31, Cal has been pretty dominant and sits atop the Pac-10. What happened?
Everybody else lost? Seriously, did you see us sleepwalk through an embarassing loss at Oregon State? Or fall behind by 11 at the half at home vs. Washington State? Or give up a 25-0 run at USC? Cal has managed to go 4-2 over the past few weeks, but other than a convincing victory over UW at home, they haven't really looked dominating over that stretch.
That said, as mediocre as Cal has been, everyone else has been even less inspiring, though Arizona State at least has managed to stay close. First one to 12 wins this conference?
He's a shooter. Lots of shooters are streaky. This Cal team can live and die by the jump shot, so Cal fans have learned to live with the streakyness.
Moreover, I think Randle doesn't quite have the ice cold mentality of some shooters; he can let things bother him, so if he's going up against a guard who is quick enough to keep him from penetrating or active enough to force him into some dumb turnovers, he can get flustered and try to do too much. When he's not hitting shots, he's either injured (he's played through both leg injuries and debilitating stomach flus this year -- apparently, he threw up during halftime in Cal's loss to UCLA) or he's taking contested shots that he shouldn't. But man, when he's on, he's crazy-accurate from crazy-deep. I'm going to miss him, and I'm not the only Cal fan that feels that way.
3. What are your thoughts on Cal finishing strong and winning the Pac-10 regular season?
That would be awesome. But who knows? Cal fans have hope now. Hope that we might succeed. This is exactly the moment where something disastrous happens. Losing to both UA and ASU at home? We have Stanford on the road to end the season. You know there is a solid chance Cal needs a win at Stanford to clinch the Pac10 and we lose in disastrously emotional fashion. That, of course, assumes we win against ASU/UA this week, which would be a foolish assumption.
We have 2 of the toughest teams left, but at least Cal has them at home. If Cal fans can finally show up and show some passion, hopefully that helps Cal get some key wins and get their first Pac10 title in 50 years.
Which means we, of course, lose all 3 and flame out of the NIT. We're Cal afterall!
4. Are the Golden Bears going to the Tournament this year?
Unless Cal blows it this week or bombs out of the Pac-10 tournament, we should be safe. Our RPI is too high (I think the highest RPI for a team left out of the tourney is 30 something, and Cal is sitting in the mid-20s), and the NCAA wants to keep on encouraging high-profile matchups out-of-conference. If they want this to continue, strength of schedule has to be factored in, and the Bears have lost to four top 25 caliber teams, three bordering on the top 10.
They got about as good a chance as any other Pac10 team. It is kind of stunning how bad the Pac10 is this year. Bla. Our RPI is good, even though the loss to OSU sucked.
CBS has us at 23rd, also. So, I think we are in a good position there to make the Tournament, but we it is not 100% yet. We still need to win more games. Wins against good teams like ASU and Arizona would certainly be helpful. Going deep in the Pac10 Tournament would be VERY helpful.
Right now, Cal is on the bubble. We need some more key wins to get in, but I believe we will get in. The Pac10 is bad, but the tourney still wants west coast representation. We're as good as pretty much any other team out there. I shouldn't say good, perhaps. We're as not bad as pretty much any other team out there.
5. What are your thoughts on the Pac-10 this year?
23 days ago:
Arizona's State's Eric Boateng (2) shoots over the attempted defense of Arizona's Derrick Williams (23) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game at McKale Center in Tucson, Ariz., Sunday, Feb. 21, 2010. Arizona State won 73-69. (AP Photo/John Miller)
Arizona couldn't catch up on Sunday, falling to the Sun Devils 73-69 at McKale. The Sun Devils were on, hitting 52% of their FG's and were 11-20 from 3 point land. Arizona didn't help themselves out much by turning the ball over 12 times and having many one and done possessions. Derrick Williams had 15 points and 5 rebounds. Nic Wise scored 18 and had 3 assists. Kyle Fogg chipped in13 points as well. Solomon Hill (foul king) had 4 personals in 16 minutes of play.
Richard Kuksis had 17 points on 17 points on 6-8 shooting and was 3-3 from 3 point land. This guy kills us! Ty Abbott scored 28 points, which was much less annoying than Kuksis' 17. Abbott was 11-17 on his FG's.
I don't know what it's going to take to get Miller to turn these kids around. They are young and that is showing right now in the midst of their losing ways. It's not going to get any easier with the Cats traveling to play at Cal and Stanford this week.
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