US Men Head to ConFed Cup

Fresh off the latest round of World Cup Qualifying last week, in which the team went 1-1, The United States Men’s National Team (US MNT) opens play in the Confederations Cup Tournament in South Africa on Monday. Playing in a very difficult group with the likes of Italy, Brazil, and Egypt, the chances of advancing to the semi-finals are slim for the US. But that’s not really the focus for this team…

Just over a week ago the team travelled to a very hostile stadium in San Jose, Costa Rica for their first of two qualifying games in four days. The team was sluggish and uninspired, and got thoroughly thumped to the tune of 3-1. The Costa Ricans scored early on the US, in the 4th and 13th minutes, putting the Americans behind the eight-ball early in a stadium they have never won in. They never recovered, falling behind 3-0 in the 2nd half before a penalty kick by Landon Donovan in extra time gave the American’s their only goal.

Three days later the US MNT returned home to the States to take on a Honduras side that has been surging of late. Though the number of Honduran supporters out-numbered the American supporters in Chicago’s Soldier Field, the Americans felt more comfortable there than in Costa Rica, and it showed. Despite another early goal by the Hondurans in the 5th minute, The Americans looked much more composed and controlled play most of the game. A penalty goal from Donovan shortly before halftime tied the game, followed by the winner on a header by Carlos Bocanegra in the 68th minute.

The 1-1 record over the latest batch of qualifying games leaves the US in 2nd place halfway through World Cup Qualifying in CONCACAF, with the top three teams automatically qualifying. The US MNT now takes a break from Qualifying to participate in a couple of tournaments over the next two months.

Which brings up back to the ConFed Cup next week. The US opens on Monday 6/15 against an Italian squad that looks loaded and is the defending World Cup Champion. These two teams met in that World Cup in 2006, playing a memorable 1-1 tie. That game was the only game in the entire tournament the Italians did not win.

Next up for the Americans is Brazil on Thursday 6/18. While the Brazilians have unveiled a slightly different brand of soccer from their usual lately, it has been particularly successful as they storm through World Cup Qualifying in South America. Relying more on a defensive approach with focus on counter-attacking, instead of their trademark Juego Bonita (Beautiful Game) style of stringing together passes with flare and precision, has been met with criticism and doubt from the most of Brazil but seems to be effective.

Last up in the round robin style first round is Egypt on Sunday 6/21. While not considered a traditional soccer power, Egypt has played well of late and won the Africa Cup of Nations last year to be in this tournament.

As i said earlier, the Americans are not really expected to get out of the first round. Only the top two teams advance, which means the favorites are Brazil and Italy. The best chance for the Americans is to somehow scrape out a win against either Italy or Brazil, then go into the final game against Egypt and pick up another win.

While it would be nice for the Americans to pull this off, their main focus is not necessarily on winning on advancing. It’s all about the experience. This tournament will put the Americans against two of the top 5 teams in the world, in the country, cities, and stadiums that the World Cup will be played in next year. It is the exact type of atmosphere that will surround the World Cup, with far less pressure and expectations on the Americans. A kind of dress rehearsal for the real thing next year.

This fact is not lost on head coach Bob Bradley, or most of the players. Bradley called this tournament a ‘great opportunity’ for the team, mentioned that it was a goal to qualify for this tournament specifically for the experience it will give the team.

But just because they’re looking at it that way does not mean they are not there to compete and try to win games. The Americans brought their ‘A’ squad to South Africa, and look to make some noise as a ’spoiler’ to either Italy or Brazil. It will make for great games, all of which will be televised on ESPN. So i urge you all to watch, not just for the Americans but also to see some of the best players in the world on the field against the Americans. And to bone up for the main event, next year’s World Cup.

Dbacks Organization Incompetent?

The question must be asked. 

As the play on the field continues to deteriorate to the point of being unwatchable, the Dbacks organization is coming under some serious heat. In a somewhat pre-emptive move last week, they fired manager Bob Melvin under the guise of ‘needing a change’. Rumors started to fly this week that Melvin had given up on some of the players, believing they did not have the talent to play on this team. 

The organization, and Josh Byrnes in particular, clearly took issue with that and disagreed. Something had to give, and Melvin was let go. AJ Hinch was brought in, someone who was previously the Manager of Minor League Operations. Hinch has zero managerial experience in any level of baseball, having been exclusively a front office guy before being named manager. 

The move to Hinch was a clear sign: The Dbacks are focusing on developing their young players. That’s been the biggest criticism of the team so far this year - The players aren’t developing fast enough or the well enough. So they bring in a guy who’s been with them through their development in the minors. A guy who knows the players well, has for years. A guy who presumably has helped develop this players along the way, and who will be able to help develop them. 

But I’m left wondering… Have the Dbacks already screwed up the players development? Is it too late? Or, more to the point… Are the Dbacks rushing their players? Have they brought them up too fast?

I got to thinking about this last night as the Dbacks trotted out no fewer than three starters who had never seen a AAA game in their careers before being in the Majors. Justin Upton, Gerardo Parra, and Bryan Augenstein had never played in a AA game before their first start in the Major League. And it would have been five (!) if Mark Reynolds and Chris Snyder had started last night. 

That’s over half the team who skipped AAA ball entirely! Normally I’d think ‘wow, he must be really good if he’s skipping AAA’. Now i wonder if the Dbacks are stunting their growth and development by bringing them up too soon. Let’s take a quick look at some players and how much time they spent in AAA before their first Major League start:

Field Players:
Mark Reynolds: 0 games
Stephen Drew: 85
Conor Jackson: 93
Justin Upton: 0
Chris Young: 100
Chris Snyder: 0
Miguel Montero: 47
Gerardo Parra: 0
Eric Byrnes: 198

Pitchers:
Max Scherzer: 13
Brandon Webb: 4
Esmerling Vasquez: 30
Bryan Augenstein: 0
Tony Pena: 24

Umm, wow. Doesn’t it seem like maybe this team should have a little more experience in the minors? Maybe they’re being thrown into the fire a bit too soon, before they’re ready? Just for a point of reference, the one player everyone loves to roast the organization about (and rightfully so) is Carlos Quentin. Quentin had 254 games played in AAA. See the difference?

Admittedly, there are times when a player is clearly ready to make the jump into the Big Leagues. A curious case is Justin Upton, who you could argue was brought up too soon, but who is dominating as of late from the plate. But look at his defense, and it’s clear he’s got a lot to learn. He still does not understand the concept of hitting the cut-off man.

If nothing else it’s an interesting look at how little time the Dbacks players had to develop in the minors. When you’re thrown into the Majors too soon, and expected to develop while up there, it makes for a lot of inconsistency. Make an entire team up this way, and you’re going to have struggles. That is what we’re currently seeing with the Dbacks. And it doesn’t appear to be getting better anytime soon.

One last interesting tidbit before i go. I’m on my way to Kansas City this weekend to visit friends. Tomorrow night I’m going to a Royals game, and Zach Greinke is pitching. Greinke is one of the best pitchers in the League this season so far. Greinke had just 33 games in AA and AAA combined before getting to the Majors. He now has 151 games in the Majors. I watched Greinke when I used to live in KC, he was awful. He has developed into a fantastic pitcher, but it took several years.

That’s what we may need to expect from the Dbacks, if it happens at all. The question is, will the organization, or the fans for that matter, be patient enough to wait around for that to happen? The answer, as evidenced by the Quentin trade and firing of Bob Melvin, appears to be no…

ManRam Out Till July 3rd

By now you’ve undoubtedly heard the LA Times report that Manny Ramirez testes positive for a banned substance and is being suspended from MLB for 50 games. It struck through the sports world like lightning this morning, gaining national publicity almost the instant the report went up on latimes.com. Admittedly, the first place I saw it was on twitter from @AroundTheHorn, at 8:43 pacific time. I immediately re-tweeted on my account (@twsmith23), and within minutes heard it being broken on the radio. 

Wow. That’s about all I can say at this point. Manny had been rumored at various points of being linked with steroids, but nothing had ever been proven. As more and more details come out, however, it appears more like a case of a misunderstanding and less of a case of Manny juicing. Or does it?

It’s being reported that the banned substance Manny tested positive for was HCG, which is more or less a fertility drug. One, it’s been reported, that is highly detectable, and therefore would indicate Manny did not know he was taking it or was not trying to conceal it. On the other hand, according to one report, some sources have claimed that HCG is used by steroid users to “restart the body’s testosterone production as they come down off a steroid cycle.” 

Manny of course, has been mostly quiet on the subject, saying only ”Recently I saw a physician for a personal health issue. He gave me a medication, not a steroid, which he thought was okay to give me. Unfortunately, the medication was banned under our drug policy. Under the policy that mistake is now my responsibility. I have been advised not to say anything more for now. I do want to say one other thing; I’ve taken and passed about 15 drug tests over the past five seasons.” He also went on to apologize to the team, fans, owner, etc. 

What it means for the Dodgers is the loss of the team’s leader in home runs (tied), batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. It changes their line-up completely, and I will be extremely interested to see how Orlando Hudson responds. He’s been on fire so far this year, but how much of that was because he was batting in front of Manny?

The Dodgers currently have the best record in baseball at 21-8, and sit in first place in the NL West by 6.5 games over the Giants, with the Dbacks tied for third at 8.5 games back. The Dodgers have been playing well as an entire team, there’s no doubt about that, but a loss like this will be sure to affect them negatively. The question is, how much? They’ve played well enough to build themselves a nice little cushion, and in fact have the biggest division lead of anyone in baseball by a longshot. 

The Dbacks play the Dodgers only once during the suspension, a three game set the first few days of June. The Dodgers, actually, manage to avoid hardly any competition within the division during the suspension, playing 6 against the Rockies, 5 against San Diego, and none against the Giants. They face plenty of tough teams though, in the form of the Angels, the Mets, the Cubs, the Phillies, and the White Sox. 

Whatever else happens with the Dbacks, this suspension should make for a very interesting next two months, and will shape the race for the West. I’ll be watching for sure. Then again, so will Manny.

Manny Ramirez 86?d For 50 games For Positive Test.

The LA Times has breaking news that Manny Ramirez has tested positive for a performain enhancing drug (PED) and will be suspended 50 games, effectively immediately. He will not be able to return to action until July 3rd. 

There is a new conference set for later today, and the Dodgers have supposedly already caleld someone up from their AAA team to replace Ramirez. He is expected to blame the positive result to medication he received from a doctor. 

More on this story later here at Fanster…

(http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-manny-ramirez8-2009may08,0,6324894.story)

Dbacks Turning Every Pitcher Into Cy Young

Just some startling, Monday morning stats for you to chew on as the week starts.

Ubaldo Jimenez: 1-4, 6.58 ERA. Pitched 7 scoreless innings in a 3-0 Dbacks loss on 04/07. This outing is tied with one other start as his longest of the season. 

Eric Stults: 2-1, 5.5 ERA. Pitched 5.1 innings with 1 earned run in a 11-2 Dbacks loss on 04/11. Only outing of the year he pitched into the 6th inning, and also the only outing of the year he’s given up less than 2 earned runs. 

Jeff Suppan: 1-2, 5.88 ERA. Pitched 6.1 innings with 1 earned run in a 4-1 Dbacks loss on 04/30. His longest outing of the year, and only outing he’s given up less than 2 earned runs. 

Franklin Morales: 1-0, 3.38 ERA. Made two starts this year, both against Dbacks. On 04/08 pitched 6 innings with 1 earned run in a 9-2 Dbacks loss. Was sent to minors immediately following the game. 

Todd Wellemeyer: 2-2, 5.28 ERA. Pitched 7 innings with 1 earned run in 2-1 Dbacks loss on 04/13. Tied with one other start for longest outing of his season, and only outing of the year he’s given up less than 2 erned runs. 

Randy Johnson: 2-2, 4.5 ERA. Faced Dbacks twice, getting knocked around a bit in one game. Also went 7 scoreless innings, giving up just one hit, in a 2-0 Dbacks loss on 04/19. Tied with one other game for his longest outing of the season. Was also his lowest pitch count of the season at just 73, including the other start against the Dbacks when he lasted just 3.1 innings but still threw 81 pitches. 

I know the bats have been struggling, but come on…

Are The Dbacks Underperforming? Or Overvalued?

Listening to the radio on my way to work this morning, they were having a discussion about the Dbacks. An interesting question was brought up, something that to this point, I had not considered. The question is: Are the Diamondbacks not living up to expectations? Or are the Diamondbacks not as good as we think they should be?

Have we been overvaluing the players on this team all along? What if, despite the number of people who say otherwise, the players just aren’t as good as they were projected to be? How would you look at this? How would you decide what the measure is the young players should be living up to? How big of a sample size do you need to determine whether or not they’re living up to those expectations?

It’s been widely accepted that for most of the last two season, and the first month of this season, this team has been underachieving. Isn’t that a long enough time for the players to come around? Shouldn’t two-plus years give us a pretty good idea of what each player is capable of? Let’s take a look at the career stats of some of our players. (Career Batting Average, Average number of Home Runs and RBI’s per season, and year of their first full season)

Chris Young: .240BA, 26HR, 77RBI (2007)
Stephen Drew: .271BA, 17HR, 67RBI (2007)
Mark Reynolds: .256BA, 29HR, 98RBI (2007)
Justin Upton: .243BA, 18HR, 58RBI (2008)
Conor Jackson: .284BA, 15HR, 80RBI (2006)
Chad Tracy: .285BA, 19HR, 75RBI (2004)
Eric Byrnes: .261BA, 19HR, 68RBI (2002)
Chris Snyder .235BA, 17HR, 68RBI (2005)

Does this scare anyone else? There’s not a .290 hitter in the bunch, let alone anyone over .300. No 30Hr guy, no 100RBI guy. In fact, if you look at every player on this list, everyone is strikingly average.

It’s been said over and over again that Chris Young should bat .280, Drew should hover around .290, Tracy could win a batting title, etc. etc. etc.. We’ve heard for going on three years with most of these players that they’re going to ‘break out’ soon. How long should it take? Will it ever, finally, happen?

At what point does their potential become their failure?

Are The Dbacks Bats Turning A Corner?

After a 10-0 thumping of the Cubs today (by the way, how bad are the Cubs against the Dbacks?), the Dbacks once again put together a good offensive showing from the plate, turning 8 hits and 10 walks into those 10 runs. With 3 wins in the last four games, and at least 3 runs in each of the last five games, I’m starting to wonder if the Dbacks are starting to come around from the plate.

Throwing out Felipe Lopez because he’s been our most consistent hitter, and taking away Ojeda because he hasn’t been in the lineup quite as much as everyone else, I want to look at some batting stats. For this, I’m going to concentrate on the ‘core’ guys: Conor Jackson, Chad Tracy, Stephen Drew, Eric Byrnes, Mark Reynolds, Justin Upton, and Chris Young. Let’s take a look at the season stats:

Season Averages:
Jackson: .200
Tracy: .271
Drew: .205
Byrnes: .176
Reynolds: .278
Upton: .246
Young: .208

Yikes, I’m sorry I looked. That’s awful… Anyway, let’s take a look now at the last 7 days:
Jackson: .200
Tracy: .174
Drew: .208
Byrnes: .176
Reynolds: .276
Upton: .304
Young: .250

It’s an interesting exercise. Jackson, Drew, Byrnes, and Reynolds are all holding steady. I’m most surprised my Reynolds on this list, as it has seemed he has been raking as of late. Maybe his hits have just been more timely? A quick look at his slugging and OPS percentages show they are practically identical for the season and the last 7 days. Is Reynolds the most consistent Dback hitter??

Tracy has been struggling lately. I had not realized this, but the numbers seem to bear it out. Of anyone on this list though, him and Jackson are the two hitters I’m least worried about. I would expect both of them to be hovering around .300 by the end of they year when it’s all said and done. 

Then we have Upton and Young. I started this column mainly as a way to promote the home stand Justin Upton has had. The kid has all the talent in the world, and has gotten killed over and over again the last year and a half for not always showing it. If this latest home stand has shown anything, it’s the glimpse of what he can do. He’s got the power, as evidenced by his home run off of Friday’s Front Row on Saturday (I was at the game- It went a mile and it went quick). He’s got the speed, obviously. And he’s starting to show the ability to hit to all spots on the field, something I want to see more of from both him and Reynolds. I’d love to see Upton gets his batting average to around .300 for the year, but realistically I’d be happy with a .270-.280. He’s only 21 after all. 

Then there’s Young. Dude has range all over center field, he’s got the speed to steal bases, he’s got the power to hit home runs. He just can’t lay off breaking balls or the high heat to save his life. He should hit .280, he’s talented enough. For whatever reason (I sound like Bob Melvin now…), Young has struggled to get going this year. He does worry me a bit, as he’s had enough success without a lot of struggle in his young career. I’m hoping he responds well and will turn the corner shortly.

Overall, it’s an interesting look at the Dbacks hitting woes early on in the season. Maybe I’m going crazy, as the numbers don’t bear it out as much as i thought they might, but this team just feels like it’s turning the corner from the plate. Let’s hope I’m right about that, and this team starts hitting again. They’re a lot more fun to watch when they score a few runs…

Gold Cup Coming To The Valley

For a change of pace over here at Fanster, we’re gonna talk a little soccer. 

The 2009 CONCACAF Gold Cup is coming to University of Phoenix Stadium this July, and it’s time people in the Valley started paying attention.

The Gold Cup is the championship for nations in the CONCACAF region of FIFA (North America, Central America, and the Caribbean), and is held every two years. This year the event includes 12 teams, including the United States and Mexico, and is being held in 13 cities across the country. 

University of Phoenix Stadium is hosting two games on July 12th, the final day of the first round of the tournament. In the first match of a doubleheader, Panama will take on Nicaragua. In the second game, the stadium will feature Mexico taking on Guadeloupe. Mexico, currently ranked 24th in the world rankings, boasts a team still trying to find its way with a new coach. In recent matches the team has been hampered by injuries, but has plenty of talent in the form of Giovani Dos Santos, Nery Castillo, and mainstay Rafael Marquez. 

Phoenix, while having a very large Hispanic and Latino populations, has lacked a large soccer presence in this country in terms of having a Major League Soccer team or hosting many international matches. The last international match played here involving either the US or Mexico was a game in February of 2007 matching the two teams against each other. It was a thrilling 2-0 win for the US, but it was easy to see why the US National Team hasn’t embraced Phoenix as a home for soccer in the country: There were way more Mexico fans there than US fans. I should know, i was there. 

It isn’t all that surprising when you think about it really, but it is disappointing that an area with such a large population, and a large percentage of Hispanic and Latinos (traditionally bigger soccer fans than Americans), has such a void for high-quality, international soccer. The US team does not want to play here because they will lose the home-field advantage they enjoy when they play at other venues, typically Columbus, OH and Foxborough, MA. And unfortunately it’s hard to convince two outside countries to travel here to play games against each other. 

Either way, the organizers of the Gold Cup made a fantastic decision to not only use Phoenix as a host city, but to place Mexico here as well. The fan base for that game should be large and loud. It is a great opportunity for a casual soccer fan to get a fairly inexpensive ticket and see very high quality international soccer. I encourage all of you to get out there and support soccer in the Valley. A large crowd for the Gold Cup this year could lead to future soccer matches in the Valley. And it’s never too early to start looking at the US bid to host the World Cup in either 2018 or 2022.

Does Bob Melvin Know What He’s doing?

Watching yesterday’s Dbacks game against the Cubs, in which the Dbacks trotted out a running game that has been missing all season, I couldn’t help but be satisfied and happy. The Dbacks were putting together their best all-around game of the season, and were thoroughly beating the Cubs.  All was fine and good with the team, right up to the point where I listened to the postgame comments from Bob Melvin. And that’s when I started to wonder… Does BoMel know what he’s doing?

After a game in which the Dbacks were decidedly and noticeably more aggressive on the basepaths, stealing five bases, I was curious to hear what the gameplan had been going into the game. After a game in which the Dbacks stole a total of 5 bases, 1 shy of their entire season total (through 18 games) to that point, I assumed I would hear about an effort being made in this game, against this pitcher (Ted Lilly), to put pressure on the Cubs defense. After a game in which the Dbacks stole their most bases in two years, I waited to hear about a renewed and continued effort to put players in good positions to steal bases. 

Instead I got this from Bob Melvin: ”We have to play more aggressive, and for whatever reason (Monday) we had some confidence on the bases.”

Really Melvin? That’s it? ‘For whatever reason’? Nothing about making a concentrated effort, or putting pressure on Lilly and the Cubs defense? You have no idea why the team suddenly breaks out for five stolen bases in one game, only the 5th time that has happened in the Dbacks history??

Maybe I’m looking into it more than I should, but I would assume that when a team suddenly changes its identity for one game, the manager would either have caused that change, or at least know why it happened. Melvin appears to have done neither, and this is somewhat disconcerting to me. If this is his attitude, could it explain the lack of hitting by the Dbacks?  Has this attitude permeated the entire club, something that isn’t that far fetched? Teams often take on the mentalities of their managers.

I’m not calling for Melvin’s head, but last nights comments are another incident that gives me concern about Melvin. And all that talk about Melvin being a genius (the Mad Scientist as he was dubbed) during the 2007 season… Did the Dbacks finish that well because of Melvin, or in spite of him? The question should, at the very least, be considered following 2008 and the start to 2009.

Dbacks Problems Run Too Deep?

In the middle of the 3rd game of the season, i got upset at what i was watching and what i had seen, and questioned the ability of this Diamondback team to make a run at a division title. Just 4 games later, after the 7th game of the season, i am no longer questioning this team. I’m declaring them dead. 

This team has WAY too many problems that need fixing for anyone to consider them anything more than a ‘project’. The fact that we didn’t see this going into the season is an indication not on the team’s ability to cover those flaws up, but on our insistence to quickly gloss over the issues and assume they would get better. I got news for anyone out there reading this: Their issues have not gotten better. In fact, they may have gotten worse. 

It doesn’t matter how well the starting pitchers pitch (Davis goes 8 innings with 2 earned runs and Haren went 6 innings with 1 earned run in the last two outings), if the Dbacks can’t score they aren’t going to win. In the Dbacks only two wins, they threw up 9 runs in each. In their other 5 games they’ve put up a combined 6 runs. Scoring one run a game will not get it done, no matter how good your starting pitchers are. Ok, so how is this different from last year? How is is possibly worse? 

Last year the problem was an issue of timely hitting. The Dbacksgot hits, got men on base, but couldn’t move the runners and couldn’t get the hits when men were in scoring position. This year? They can’t even get men on base! The Dbacks have one hit from their right field position the entire season. One hit. From the Eric Byrnes/Justin Upton combination. Which is only slightly worse than the three combined hits they have from the catcher spot. Conor Jackson, the team’s best hitter last season, is batting .214. 

And what about the small ball? Through three games the Dbackshadn’t even attempted a stolen base. Through 7 games they have two stolen bases and one caught stealing. With the speed of Chris Young, Justin Upton, Felipe Lopez, Eric Byrnes, and Mark Reynolds (who’s faster than you think), they should be running a lot. Instead, they actually might be running less than last year, attempting just three stolen bases in 7 games. 

And let’s not forget the other glaring problem with last year’s team, the bullpen. To date this season, the ERA’s of our bullpen are 15.75 (Buckner), 9.82 (Rauch), 2.25 (Pena), 8.10 (Gutierrez), 3.86 (Schoeneweis, 5.40 (Sltaen), and 0.00 (Qualls).  To be fair,Qualls has the least amount of work (2.0 IP) than anyone on the staff other than the left handed specialist Doug Slaten (1.2 IP). Not exactly a stellar round-up of ERA’s. Does anyone on this staff not scare you when they come into the game? Quallsmaybe, MAYBE, but it’s hard to say with only two innings of work. He wasn’t exactly a rock last year. 

Again, it’s only 7 games into the season, but something would have to dramatically change in three different parts of the game (hitting, small ball, bullpen) for the Dbacks to accomplish anything this season. That is too much to overcome in the span of one season, when nothing improved in the off-season. As a result, let it be known that i’m the first to call this season over. The Dbacks are heading for a 90-loss, last place finish in the West season. I take no joy in this, and wish it would be different. I had a lot of optimism going into the season. But theDbacks have managed to break that optimism in a span of just 7 games. No easy feat…