So starts the 2010 season for the Arizona Diamondbacks, badly in need of a fresh start after a disaster of a 2009 campaign. How one views the 2010 campain can be summed up in these two quotes:
“You may have a fresh start at any moment you choose, for this thing we call ‘failure’ is not the falling down, but the staying down.”
- Mary Pickford
“Most of those who keep on making fresh starts have rotten progress.”
- Unkown
Reasons for optimism? Oh they’re a plenty. Reasons for concern? Yeah, there isn’t a shortage of those either. Previewing and predicting the 2010 season for the D-Backs is an enormously difficult task this year, mainly because of Brandon Webb. We could probably predict the production of almost every D-Back this season with relatively accuracy, but Brandon Webb’s health is such a variable that it makes almost any outcome possible this season. Webb’s shoulder could swing the season by up to 10 wins – from middle of the road team to division champion. I am going to break throughout this post to offer predictions, so here is the first:
Prediction #1: The D-Backs are a .500 team or better, regardless of Brandon Webb’s health.
The Lineup
Let’s start this season preview off with a positive: The offense could be better than it has been in years. In the early part of the 2009 season the D-Backs’ offense was awful. It couldn’t get clutch hits, it didn’t have much power, it had no plate discipline and it often wasted brilliant starts from ace Dan Haren. In 2010 the D-Backs offense is the last of the team’s worries. It starts with Justin Upton, primed to become one of the most exciting players in baseball if he isn’t already. An all-star at age 21, Upton seems to be able to do anything he wants at the plate. He can hit for average, he has jaw-dropping power and he has the potential to steal 30 bases every year. Joining Upton is Mark Reynolds, who is coming off his finest season as a pro. The goal for Reynolds in 2010 should be consistent power while cutting down on his record-breaking strikeout totals. Easier said than done, but we have to remember that Reynolds is still a young player. Reynolds finished the year with a middle-of-the-road batting average, although entering September Reynolds’ average was hovering around .290. For the past few years a knock on the D-Backs was that they didn’t have a big bopper in the middle-of-the-order, well now they have two.
Prediction #2: Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds will combine for 80 homers and 40 stolen bases this year, as well as 350 strikeouts.
The problem in 2009 was the D-Backs offense was solely Upton and Reynolds. 2010 looks to be much more promising. Bounce back years are going to need to be had by Conor Jackson, Stephen Drew, Chris Young and Kelly Johnson – all of which seem plausible. Jackson is the most likely to bounce back, considering his lost season last year was due to Valley Fever and not a physical injury. Jackson seems to be the team’s best option at lead-off hitter. His ability to work the count and his sneaky base stealing ability (he stole 5 bases in 30 games last year, he could realistically reach 20 this year) are good enough for this group.
Stephen Drew was phenomenal in 2008 and awful in 2009. Drew’s 2010 is make or break, it is the season everyone is going to judge him on. When going well, Drew is a double and triple hitting machine that plays solid defense. When going bad he is a low average and low OBP guy that offers no real excitement, the kind of guy who you’ll get up to grab a beer or use the bathroom during his at-bats.
Chris Young can only improve, because 2009 was rock-bottom for him. Young still is an intriguing power/speed combo, he just has close to zero plate discipline. Young is what he is: a very athletic player who is a great defender and a bottom of the line-up option. If Young improves his batting average to .240 this year, plays great defense and hits 20 home runs he will be a god send to this team. There were years when the D-Backs were relying on him to be a key hitter, now he is the team’s #7 or #8 hitter. The reduced pressure could work in his favor.
The numbers say new 2B Kelly Johnson should have a bounce back year in 2010. Considering he will be hitting in the lower part of the D-Backs’ lineup this year, the team will be fine with a decent batting average and double digit home runs – numbers that Johnson had delivered in two of his three years as a starter. Although I think Johnson will be okay, there is also some serious Chris Burke potential here (shutter).
Prediction #3: Conor Jackson returns to 2008 form, hits close to .300 and has an OBP over .350
Prediction #4: Fans will be clamoring to trade the under-achieving Drew at the 2010 deadline, due to another underwhelming year and Tony Abreu’s performance off the bench.
The line up in 2010 is extraordinarily balanced. If I had to predict the opening day, it would be:
Prediction #5: The opening day lineup is: Jackson-Drew-Upton-La Roche-Reynolds-Montero-Young-Johnson.
That lineup alternates between a righty and lefty at every spot, something every manager desires. It is a nice balance the D-Backs haven’t had since 1999. During their championship years earlier this decade the team was lefty heavy and during their 2007 NLCS run they were righty heavy. The balance will cause opposing managers to burn through more pitchers, and will probably cause games between the D-Backs and Cardinals to last hours (thank you very much, Tony LaRussa). There is no speed demon in the lineup, but Jackson, Upton, Reynolds and Young could all steal 20 or more bags this year. Rumor has it AJ Hinch is going to give everyone the green light this year, so I wouldn’t be surprised if that happened. The only problem I foresee with the lineup is Adam La Roche. He is a notorious slow starter, I don’t know how wild I am about him as the opening day clean up hitter. That is a role Montero may be better suited for.
Pitching
The rotation could end up being this team’s strength or it’s weakness. It all depends on the health of Webb. Let’s start with what we do know: Dan Haren is going to be solid. He’s going to have a great first half and struggle in the second half, it is what he always does. Hared only had 14 wins last year, but a decent offense and bullpen would have bumped that win total to almost 20. Edwin Jackson is primed for a big year in Phoenix. He was an all-star last year and now he is moving from the AL to the NL, always a plus for pitchers. 200+ innings pitched and a sub 4 ERA seems more than reasonable for Jackson. After those two, Webb factors in as the #3, health-permitting. If Webb can return and be effective, the D-Backs top three pitchers match up favorably with anyone in the league. Even if Webb isn’t 100%, he is a hell of a #3 pitcher. If he has another lost season then the team slides Ian Kennedy into the #3 slot, which could lead to problems. Kennedy has intriguing stuff, he was a highly touted prospect in the Yankees system. He bombed in New York, but many do and rebound with teams in less baseball crazy markets.
Prediction #6: Ian Kennedy will have double digit wins.
If Kennedy is netting the team double digit wins, no problem with him being the #3, right? Wrong, because the D-Backs options at the back end of their rotation are thin. It’s basically down to Billy Buckner, Rodrigo Lopez and Kris Benson. Excuse me if I’m not impressed. If Webb pitchers well this year, the team can afford it if Kennedy doesn’t pan out. If Webb is hampered all year, it is vital that Kennedy pitches well all year. Ian Kennedy is not someone I want to bank my season on. The importance of Webb this year can not be stressed enough.
The bullpen was a complete disaster last year. Josh Byrnes attempted to rectify this by adding Bobby Howry and Aaron Heilman during the off-season. Both are solid relievers, but neither are all-star caliber. Chad Qualls is returning from injury to fulfill the closer’s role again. Qualls was decent last year, but he isn’t a lock-down closer like Jose Valverde was in 2007. Juan Gutierrez was impressive for the D-Backs last year. He has a lively fastball that reminded many of Valverde’s. Gutierrez could be a key contributor to this bullpen this year.
Prediction #7: Juan Gutierrez will be the D-Backs’ permanent closer at some point this season.
Rounding out the back of the rotation is Clay Zavada, Esmerling Vasquez and below average lefty X. Zavada is a fan favorite because of his mustache and the fact that he was decent last year when everyone else around him couldn’t get anyone out. I have my reservations about Zavada, he doesn’t throw hard and lefties hit him pretty well, but I root hard for him solely because of that mustache. If Zavada were ever to cut it, he would become an afterthought in Phoenix. Vasquez has great stuff, he was a little to young last year and was pretty inconsistent. Vasquez could play a bigger role this year, or he could find himself in the minors most of the year since he was rushed to the big leagues last year. I’m sure the D-Backs will find room on their roster for a crappy lefty, they always do.
Season Prediction
I was way off on my prediction last year and this year isn’t going to be much easier since so much relies on Webb’s shoulder. The only thing I can say for certain is the first prediction I made in this article, that the D-Backs will be .500 or better. They have too much talent and improved on too many of their weaknesses last year to finish with 90 losses again. I’m going to factor in production from Webb this year, but will air on the pessimistic side and say it isn’t as much as we are hoping for. Their offense is going to be better than it has been in years, which is going to help them overcome another rough year from Webb and a poor back of the rotation. The D-Backs will finish with 85 wins this year, which won’t be enough to win the West or earn the Wild Card.
Aaron will be following the Diamondbacks all season long, follow him on twitter.
