Crystal Balls: Tough week of games in the Pac-10

There’s five games on the Pac-10 slate this week, and I’m up in the air on three of them. You’d think it would be the opposite–the more Pac-10 football I watch, the more I’d have an idea of what teams are actually capable of. Wrong.

Heading into week eleven, there’s so many questions to ponder:

• Is Arizona for real, or are the Wildcats just the beneficiaries of repeated good fortune?
• Can Cal overcome the loss of Jahvid Best?
• Is Brock Osweiler the real deal, or has ASU head coach Dennis Erickson been holding him back for a reason?
• How much impact will LeGarrette Blount have for Oregon this week?
• Is Stanford, indeed, the best team in the conference?
• Are the USC cheerleader sweaters powerful enough to make my man boobs look perky?
• Can Washington break their road losing streak?
• Will anyone show up to watch the UCLA-Wazzu game?

I told you there’s a lot of questions out there. Let’s take a crack at answering some of them…

Stanford (6-3, 5-2) at #9 USC (7-2, 4-2) - Saturday @ Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum - Los Angeles, CA - Remember the last time Stanford played at the Coliseum? The Cardinal, a 41-point underdog, got a touchdown pass from Tavita Pritchard to Mark Bradford with just :49 left, giving Stanford a win many are still calling the biggest upset in the history of college football.
What a difference two years makes. Stanford is rolling, and is quite possibly the best team in the conference right now after beating Oregon 51-42 a week ago. And yes, that same Oregon team routed USC on Halloween night.
On the other side of the coin, USC is not playing all that well. Their defense was gashed in three consecutive games by Notre Dame, Oregon State and Oregon, and last week their offense managed only 258 yards and 7 points in a sloppy 14-9 win over Arizona State. But something tells me that USC will show up this week, and the Trojans who were on the field at the Coliseum two years ago have payback in their minds.
Crystal Balls Prediction: USC 27…..Stanford 23

Washington (3-6, 2-4) at #23 Oregon State (6-3, 4-2) - Saturday @ Reser Stadium - Corvallis, OR - Washington is a fluky interception return against Arizona away from being on a 6-game losing streak, and they’re still in the middle of a 14-game losing streak away from Husky Stadium. Meanwhile, Oregon State just keeps plugging along. The Beavers have won 4 of their last 5 to vault into the BCS Rankings at #23. It sounds like a broken record, but nobody has really found a way to contain James and Jacquizz Rodgers, who have 23 touchdowns between them (24 if you count ‘Quizz’s td pass) and 14 scores in the last 5 weeks.
Crystal Balls Prediction: Oregon State 42…..Washington 20

UCLA (4-5, 1-5) at Washington State (1-8, 0-6) - Saturday @ Martin Stadium - Pullman, WA - With games against Oregon State an at Washington remaining on their schedule, this might be the last opportunity of 2009 for the Cougs to grab a victory. But unless they find a way to the Bruins out of the end zone, they don’t stand a chance in this game either. WSU has lost six straight by an average of 29.8 points. UCLA finally got off the schneid with a one-point win over Washington last week. The “Ball” is telling us the Bruins will make it two straight.
Crystal Balls Prediction: UCLA 28…..Washington State 10

#17 Arizona (6-2, 4-1) at California (6-3, 3-3) - Saturday @ Memorial Stadium - Berkeley, CA - The entire college football world had their hearts in their throats last week when Cal’s Jahvid Best took a nasty spill on a touchdown run in the Bears’ loss to Oregon State. Best launched himself into the air, and fell violently after being hit by an OSU defender–a fall so hard, it knocked his helmet off in the process. After the initial scare, it turned out to be a concussion (the 2nd in two weeks for Best) that will likely end his 2009 season. So, can Cal overcome the loss of one of the nation’s most explosive backs? They didn’t seem to respond too well a week ago. Cal’s offense was in a fog the rest of the game, and managed only 25 yards on their next 7 possessions.
Everything seems to be falling Arizona’s way. The Wildcats control their own destiny for their first Pac-10 championship. But, three of their last four are on the road, including this week’s game in Berkeley, where the ‘Cats have lost their last three games by an average of 24.7 points.
Crystal Balls Prediction: California 27…..Arizona 26

Arizona State (4-5, 2-4) at #13 Oregon (7-2, 5-1) - Saturday @ Autzen Stadium - Eugene, OR - Brock Osweiler gets his first start for Arizona State this week in Eugene. After playing well in some in the 2nd quarter, and all of the third, Osweiler and the ASU defense bogged down in the 4th quarter of a 14-9 loss to USC. Osweiler went just 5 for 18 in the quarter when the Sun Devils squandered seemingly countless opportunities to end a 9-game losing streak against the Trojans. Osweiler called last week’s outing “a learning experience”, and this week, the learning should continue as the true freshman gets his shot in the loudest stadium in the Pac-10.
Oregon held their Pac-10 championship destiny in their hands and an outside shot at sneaking into a BCS Championship berth after beating USC two weeks ago, but slipped up–or more accurately–got beat up by a physical Stanford team 51-42 last week. The Ducks have to be seething after that loss, and should take it out on a frustrated Sun Devils’ defense this week.
Crystal Balls Prediction: Oregon 44…..Arizona State 27

Week 10 Record: 3-2
Season Record: 48-12

Oh, and by the way, for all you point spread watchers who criticize me on a weekly basis for not picking ATS, here’s my response. I don’t care about the point spread. I don’t gamble on sports. As soon as the NCAA changes their format to allow a team to go to a bowl game after covering the spread 6 times, then I’ll start paying attention to it.

But, hey, I’ll give it a shot. Using Friday’s spreads from the online sports book at Bodog.com, here’s my first Crystal Balls ATS picks…

• Stanford at USC - Bodog says: USC -11.5 - Crystal Balls Prediction: USC 27-23 - ATS Pick: Stanford +11.5
• Washington at Oregon State - Bodog says: OSU -13.5 - Crystal Balls Prediction: OSU 42-20 - ATS Pick: Oregon State -13.5
• UCLA at Washington State - Bodog says: WSU +17.5 - Crystal Balls Prediction: UCLA 28-10 - ATS Pick: UCLA -17.5
• Arizona at California - Bodog says: Cal -3 - Crystal Balls Prediction: Cal 27-26 - ATS Pick: Arizona +3
• Arizona State at Oregon - Bodog says: Oregon -18.5 - Crystal Balls Prediction: Oregon 44-27 - ATS Pick: Arizona State +18.5

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