Pick and Roll: +/- 42 wins

ESPN’s panel of experts (FIFTY THREE PEOPLE!) yesterday predicted how the Western Conference would shake out this upcoming season.  Apparently the stinkin’ Lakers are the team to beat (with a rubber hose,) and the Spurs will also be a force to be reckoned with.  The Suns?  8th place, with a projected 42 wins.

To put it another way, mediocrity.

Here’s what the panel ESPN should have called the NBA Future Council had to say about the Suns:

“The Suns were a lottery team last season, but a good one, winning 46 despite a coaching change and an eye injury to Amare Stoudemire. Now Shaq’s gone, and the speed game is back, led by Steve Nash. If Amare returns to full health, the Suns will light it up again. But will that be enough for more than 8th best in the West?”

In our first Pick and Roll in ages, Steve Fan and I get back in the swing of things with our expectations for the upcoming Suns season, and tackle ESPN’s prediction of 42 wins.

Steve Fan:

Are the Suns the 8th best team in the West?  Probably.  There are at least seven teams better than the Suns as we know them now.  Four are much better (LA, Denver, Portland and the Spurs,) three others could be within reach (Dallas, Utah and New Orleans,) and there’s no telling what happens in Houston.

If you consider the 2008/09 Suns, take away Matt Barnes and Shaq (thanks, I’ve had enough), add a healthy Stoudemire in a contract year, a promising first round pick in Earl Clark and a full year of Alvin Gentry coaching, you could expect the Suns to win 42 to 46 games.  Don’t forget Phoenix missed the playoffs last season with 46 wins, going 30-22 in the conference and 11-5 in the division.

Are they better than that? Not so sure but they do have talent and potential.  Nash, J-Rich, Grant Hill, Stoudemire and Frye could make a very good starting five.

Could they be better?  Of course.  6th or 7th in the West is reasonable.

The Suns are relying on potential with seven players under the age of 26 on their opening day roster.   They could improve down the road and for the first time since the first year of the D’Antoni era, Phoenix won’t play under the constant pressure of having to win now.   This will allow the team to enjoy playing with a light heart since more or less we all believe the Suns window of opportunity has closed for good.

If Clark is as good as we hope, if Frye – happy to be back in Arizona – goes back to his New York form, if Nash stays healthy, if STAT plays the way he can, if Barbosa and Richardson perform they way they are capable … the Suns could be much better than 8th.

48-50 victories could be “up for grabs”.

All these conditions must be met, a BIG IF I understand, but there’s hope in the Valley.

Mark McLane:

Sigh.  Unfortunately, 42 wins sounds about right for the Suns.  They look to be firmly rooted in the middle of the pack and will most likely end up first round fodder for a hated foe.  However, a little optimism doesn’t hurt.

To hell with it, a lot of optimism.  The Suns will win 50 games this season and battle for home court in the first round of the playoffs.  There.  I said it.

It pains me to say the Lakers are the class of the conference, but in the end, they don’t matter.  They’re so much better than the Suns, it’s no longer about winning the division.  The name of the game is beating Dallas, Utah, and New Orleans, and even Denver and Portland.

Perhaps someone slipped me a handful of Ron Artest crazy pills, but I don’t see the Mavericks, Jazz and Hornets as significantly better than the Suns.  They have as many questions marks as this Suns team and one of the three is due for a tumble in the standings.

Damn near everything went wrong for the Suns last year.  Coaching and philosophy upheaval, trades, injuries, heartbreaking losses, it was one thing after another.  Despite all the obstacles they faced, last year’s team managed 46 wins.

A healthy Amare, running and gunning Steve Nash, and improved bench put the Suns in great position to make some noise in the Western Conference and contend for a first round payday for Mr. Sarver.  Replicating last year’s victory total should be the baseline for their goals this season.

A season ending with just 42 wins doesn’t excite me, it doesn’t give me a whole lot to look forward to.  Now, making contenders sweat and once again becoming the team no one wants to play, I can get used to that.

50 wins.  Who will help me drink this orange Kool-Aid?

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