Coming Off A Sophomore Slump

In doing some research (and by research, I mean spending quality time with ESPN Insider while up late), I came across a really interesting stat that prompted me to dig a little bit deeper.

Since 1980, 34 of the 72 current BCS schools have seen a 1st year head coach win more than eight games in their first season at a school.

Dennis Erickson is one of them; he led the Sun Devils to a 10-3 record in 2007 in his first year at the helm in Tempe.

Out of those 34, only five went on to win less than six in the 2nd season.

Once again, Dennis Erickson is one of them. In fact, three of the five, including Bill Walsh in 1993 and Bill Doba in 1995, come from the Pac-10.

Erickson, of course, led the Sun Devils to a disappointing 5-7 in his 2nd year on the sidelines for Arizona State.

(In case you’re wondering, the other two non Pac-10 coaches on this list are John Bunting of UNC and John L. Smith of Michigan State).

Where this stat fell short, however, is how each of those coaches bounced back from their disappointing 2nd seasons.

Walsh didn’t fare well in 1994; a 3-7-1 record led to his ouster as head coach. He was replaced by some guy named Tyrone Willingham, who four years later would take Stanford to a Rose Bowl.

John Bunting struggled in his 3rd year as well; with a dramatic lack of talent, the Tar Heels went a woeful 2-10 in 2003, including a last-second loss to our very own Sun Devils in Chapel Hill.

It was a tumultuous career in East Lansing for John L. Smith; he was never fully loved by Spartan fans and in his 3rd season, he followed up a 5-7 season with a 5-6 season.

Finally, it wasn’t an easy job to have to take over for Mike Price up in Pullman, and Bill Doba didn’t do it particularly well. After his 10-3 2003 season, Doba went 5-6 and then 4-7 in 2005 to follow up that successful season.

Catch the drift? In recent years, coaches in major conferences who get off to hot starts in their 1st year and then dramatic falls in year #2 don’t easily recover. Each of the other four coaches in this grouping certainly never saw their programs reach any sort of meaningful success in the years after.

Judging by what we know thus far about the 2009 Arizona State Sun Devils, Dennis Erickson may be adding his name to this list. It’s going to take a whole lot of stellar coaching to make sure he doesn’t fall victim to this trend.

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