Suns should gain ground in the West with a favorable schedule through February

After our heart-breaking losses in the post-season for the past 372 years; I admit, I was a little…what’s the right word…edgy.

Hence, when the 2008-2009 schedule was released for the Suns, I was already in a foul mood.  There was a lot of uncertainty in Suns Land and the West wasn’t getting any easier.  I was searching for something, somewhere, that would give me one possible little, tiny, shred of hope for the Suns in 08/09.  Well, judging by the post that I wrote in August entitled “Suns Crappy Schedule/Stern Sucks“, you can probably guess that no hope came to me.  Here was my entire post…

The Suns schedule sucks. It’s ridiculous. I couldn’t be more pissed off. Here are some “highlights” and things we can look forward to:

• Open the season in San Antonio then play the Hornets on the following night, play Portland on Nov. 1 then head out on a 4 game East - coast road trip.
• 7 games in 10 days to start the season. 5 are on the road.
• The back-to-back to start the season is ONLY ONE SET OF OUR 19 BACK-TO-BACKS. This is absolutely unbelievable.
• We have four, 4 game road trips. One of them is for 6 games in 9 days.
• We have 1 home-stand of 4 games. The rest are 3 games or less.
• We are in a continual cycle of 1-2 home games, then several road games.

Oh.  My.  God.

Yikes.  Sense any hints of sarcasm and defeat?  Actually, the majority of posts had a similar tone from May-October.  When the schedule came out, it was just another slap in the face to Suns fans…

 
However, with the West’s playoff race being so tight (no surprise there), I took much closer and detailed look at the Suns schedule in January/February, as well as the other Western Conference powers.  To my sheer delight (combined with the struggles of other second-tier teams in the West and the Suns play of late) I began to feel hope again!  After all, to be a Suns fan, you have to be an eternal optimist, right?

Reason for Hope - The Suns Outlook in January/February

January

• 15 total games in 31 days, 8 away, 7 home
• Only 3 sets of back to backs
• No more than 4 games per week (sensing the focus I’m putting on rest in between games?)
• They play only 6 teams with a winning record
• Toughest games: Dallas at home, Denver away, Boston away, San Antonio home
• 9 of the games are against an East opponent (Pacers, Atlanta - twice, Toronto, Boston, NY, Charlotte, Washington, Chicago) where we have traditionally dominated
• Only 3 of the 7 home games are against a winning team
• Last time the Suns played the Pacers…well…Amare did pretty good.
• We should be able to win at least 10-13 of the 15 games

February

• 13 games in 28 days, 7 home, 6 away
• Only 3 sets of back to backs
• No more than 3 games per week, minus the last week in February where we play 4
• They play only 4 teams with a winning record
• Toughest games: Detroit away, Cleveland away, Boston home, Lakers away
• We play the Warriors twice, the Clippers twice, Sacramento, Thunder, Philly, Toronto and the Bobcats. Rather, teams that aren’t very good make up 9 of our games
• We should be able to win 9-11 of the 13 games

Quick Summary

• Barring any injuries or significant breakdown, if the Suns win between 20-22 total games in January/February combined (which is very, very doable), they could potentially have a record from 39-20 to 41-18.

Sure, this is great for the Suns but it makes no difference if other teams in the West have favorable schedules at the same time.  Fortunately, that’s not the case…

Other second-tier West teams…and the Lakers (hint: it looks good for the Suns)

• Dallas: Currently 20-12.  Our closest competitor schedule wise…15 games in January, 12 in February. 13 of which against teams with a current winning record, 14 home games.
• Portland:  Currently 20-13.  Tough road schedule playing the Lakers, Dallas, New Orleans, Houston, and San Antonio.  Not to mention games at home against Detroit, Cleveland, Utah, and Atlanta.
• Utah:  Currently 19-15.  Total games close in comparison but schedule is just brutal.  Games against Lakers twice, New Orleans twice, Detroit, Dallas twice, Houston, Cleveland, Denver, San Antonio, Portland, Boston, and Atlanta.
• San Antonio:  Currently 22-11.  Only 10 games at home in January/February combined.  13 games against winning teams.  Annual Rodeo Trip in February with 8 straight road games with 2 sets of back to backs.  Plays Boston, Denver, Detroit, Utah, Suns, Lakers all on the road.
• Denver:  Currently 23-12.  Only thing going for them in January is they are at least home when they play the Hornets, Pistons, Mavericks, Suns, Magic, and Jazz.  Difficult stretch in February playing Spurs, Boston, Atlanta, and the Lakers at home and the Heat, Magic, and Nets on the road.
• Houston:  Currently 21-14.  Home games difficult, road games generally favorable.  Only problem is that they play more home games against tough teams than road games against inferior teams.  Highlights include Boston, Lakers, Nuggets, Jazz, Pistons, Blazers, and the Cavs.
• New Orleans:  Currently 20-10.  29 total games in January/February.  Almost all of their road games are difficult to win - Lakers twice, Jazz twice, Portland, Mavericks, Cleveland, Detroit, San Antonio.  Not to mention games at home against Denver, Portland, Boston, Magic, and Detroit.
• Lakers:  Currently 26-5.  They’ve had a pretty easy schedule thus far with a LOT of home games and only 31 games played which will come back to bite them later in the year.  In January/February, they play 15 road games and have 7 sets of back to backs including Houston/San Antonio, Toronto/Boston, and Phoenix/Denver.

Of course, none of this matters if the Suns don’t step up and play to their ability and/or the other teams in the West get hot.  In any case, there is certainly reason for hope.  Judging by the Suns play of late since acquiring Jason Richardson, the outlook is much brighter than I originally thought.

Regardless, we will get a good idea of who the true upper echelon teams in the West are by the end of February.

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